Estimating The Functional Relationship Of Global Gold Prices Using A Threshold Regression (Tr) Model For The Period (2017-2024)

The research aims to study the economic factors affecting global gold prices, and attempt to demonstrate the level of changes occurring in them by using the threshold regression (TR) model, which means trying to reveal some non-linear relationships that may represent economic reality. The research found the existence of three main thresholds for changes occurring in global gold prices. As the price of gold rises after the first threshold, the relationship becomes inverse with the global oil price and a direct relationship with the federal interest rate and the price of the Ethereum currency, in addition to the ability of the independent variables to explain (91%) of the changes occurring in the dependent variable. The research presents some recommendations, including holding an international conference to investigate the causes of sharp fluctuations in gold prices during the study period and ways to reduce their negative effects on investment portfolios and central banks.